M&A Market Outlook for 2025: Predictions, Trends, and Election Impact

In this episode of the DealQuest Podcast, I’m diving into the latest research and reporting on the state of the M&A market heading into 2025. With the impact of the recent elections and the transition to a new administration, many business leaders and dealmakers are eager to understand how policy shifts and economic trends will influence mergers and acquisitions in the coming year.

While I’ve shared my own predictions in the past, this episode takes a deeper look at fresh data from recent studies and surveys conducted post-election but before the new administration took office. By the time this airs in February, we may already see early indicators confirming or challenging these forecasts. Tune in as I break down the key factors shaping the deal landscape and what business owners, investors, and strategic partners should be watching closely.

PREDICTIONS ARE INHERENTLY UNRELIABLE – SO STAY FLEXIBLE

When it comes to forecasting the M&A market, we often see experts making bold predictions about where things are headed. But in reality, these forecasts are a lot like predicting the stock market—filled with uncertainty and prone to unexpected shifts. Financial analysts frequently try to explain why the stock market goes up or down on a given day, but most of the time, their reasoning is just guesswork. One day, they attribute a stock surge to strong economic data, and the next day, when the market drops, they blame geopolitical tensions—even though those tensions existed the day before.
The same applies to the M&A world. While trends and research can provide useful insights, they can’t account for everything—especially sudden changes in economic conditions, policy shifts, or global events. By the time this episode airs, maybe some of my own insights may already be outdated due to unexpected developments. The lesson? Don't rely too heavily on market predictions when making business decisions. Instead, maintain flexibility in your strategy and be prepared to adapt as new information emerges.

BLACK SWAN EVENTS CAN SHAKE UP THE M&A MARKET

A "black swan event" refers to a rare and unpredictable occurrence that has a major impact on the market—think of the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic. While the M&A market isn’t as volatile as the stock market, it is still influenced by these kinds of unforeseen disruptions. People who correctly predict major downturns or booms often highlight their accurate calls, but they conveniently ignore the many times they were wrong. This selective memory makes it easy to believe that certain experts have a crystal ball when, in reality, the market remains unpredictable.
For business leaders and investors, this means staying informed without becoming overly reliant on forecasts. Instead of assuming the market will move in a specific direction based on predictions, companies should prepare for different scenarios, ensuring they have the agility to pivot when unexpected events unfold. Whether it’s an election-driven policy change, an economic downturn, or a global crisis, adaptability is key to thriving in the M&A landscape.

POLITICAL ADMINISTRATION CHANGES INFLUENCE ANTITRUST REGULATION AND DEAL-MAKING

Government policies play a significant role in shaping the M&A market, particularly in how antitrust regulations are enforced. The discussion highlights how the Biden administration has taken a stricter stance on blocking large mergers, citing cases like Kroger-Albertsons, JetBlue-Spirit Airlines, and Capri-Tapestry. Under a Trump-led administration, such regulations would likely ease, potentially allowing more large-scale deals to go through.
However, antitrust scrutiny primarily affects very large deals, meaning middle-market and smaller transactions often operate below the radar of federal regulators. Still, broader regulatory trends can influence market confidence and deal activity across all levels. The key takeaway? Business owners and investors should pay attention to shifts in political leadership, as changes in administration can reshape the M&A environment in ways that trickle down to smaller transactions.

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM CAN INFLUENCE BUSINESS DECISIONS, BUT IT’S NOT ALWAYS RELIABLE

Many business leaders, CEOs, and investors feel optimistic about the future based on broad economic trends, such as interest rates, capital availability, and government policies. However, this optimism should always be taken with caution because the overall economic outlook doesn’t impact every industry, region, or business in the same way.

For example, while some industries might thrive under certain policies, others might struggle. A company that relies on exports could suddenly face challenges if a trade war emerges, making it harder to do business internationally. Similarly, unpredictable events—such as financial crises, natural disasters, or global pandemics—can shift the economic landscape overnight. The recent wildfires in Southern California serve as a reminder that external factors beyond anyone’s control can disrupt businesses in a specific region, forcing entrepreneurs to focus on rebuilding rather than pursuing new deals.

The key takeaway? Business leaders should stay informed about economic trends but remain flexible and prepared for unexpected challenges. Optimism can be a great motivator, but it should never replace a well-thought-out strategy that accounts for risks and uncertainties.


SEPARATE PERSONAL BELIEFS FROM BUSINESS DECISIONS FOR CLEARER STRATEGIC THINKING

It’s natural for business owners and executives to have strong personal beliefs, whether political, ethical, or value-driven. However, allowing these beliefs to unconsciously influence business decisions can lead to missed opportunities or poor judgment.

For instance, a leader might dismiss a new policy simply because they dislike the administration behind it, rather than objectively assessing whether it could benefit their industry. On the other hand, someone might support a policy they align with personally, even if it has negative consequences for their business. A conscious and intentional approach is necessary—if a leader chooses not to pursue a business opportunity for ethical reasons, that should be a deliberate decision rather than an emotional reaction.

To make the best decisions for employees, investors, and stakeholders, business leaders must evaluate policies based on their actual economic impact rather than their personal preferences. By keeping emotions separate from analysis, they can develop strategies that serve the long-term interests of their business while staying true to their values in a thoughtful and intentional way.

Tune in to this episode to hear insights on the 2025 M&A market outlook, the impact of political and economic shifts, and strategies for navigating uncertainty in deal-making.
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Corey Kupfer is an expert strategist, negotiator, and dealmaker. He has more than 35 years of professional deal-making and negotiating experience. Corey is a successful entrepreneur, attorney, consultant, author, and professional speaker. He is deeply passionate about deal-driven growth. He is also the creator and host of the DealQuest Podcast.
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